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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
Uh OK so I just killed a little post I made in response to Prada by accident; without the quote-and-response format, here is what I was going to say:What I'm trying to say here is that Prada > Ray > Burberry for the lynch, and the greater signs are pretty big.
I think Burberry is town and I don't want him to be lynched. All that I'm saying is it's not as though his alignment is confirmed in my mind, and it's not as though people voting him are necessarily scum-motivated. But he seems town to me and I won't help that happen regardless of whether or not I can understand where people voting him are coming from.
I don't know what you want from me (well, reading your post, it's fairly clear that you want a vote, but I digress) with regards to Ray. "Wishy-washy" is kind of a silly term when it's applied to the fact that, yes, I have one very big neutral read, that's been more or less a very big neutral read since D2. I leaned town on him a bit at the time because I thought Louis's vote was scum-motivated; now I know it wasn't. On his own merit he's claimed something that is a very easy and convenient fakeclaim...just like BULLETPROOF MILLER would have been, and that was a real role. I don't think that's a reason to scumread or townread him given what kind of game we're in. So just looking at his posts, some have been pretty good, some not so much, and the only one that stuck out like a sore thumb was the Tiffany vote, and once again that just depends on whether or not he really has the night action he claims he does.
It's not as though "I'm voting you because I don't want to vote Ray," it's just "I don't want to vote Ray because I could be voting you instead." Yeah this is a scumread that I've had for a while, but your posts seemed scummy to me D1 (not a lot of contribution, a couple votes at least one of which you later denied was of any significance [other one was on Hermes]) and I've had little reason to feel any differently about that since.
- on Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:19 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
yeah okMS wiki wrote:[Goon] is the Mafia-aligned equivalent of Vanilla Townie.
so methinks it's basically either he's that or he wasn't vanillaised
- on Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:19 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
Burberry wrote:Versace is pretty wishy-washy on both me and Ray - I don't know what your definite stance is.
I would rather not see you lynched but if we can trust Valentino's evidence then I can understand where the desire is coming from. Basically you seem really town to me but I'm not blind to the possibility that you're just being deceptive (as Marcello., TIWSS, Hopkirk, etc. have done in the past). I don't see that as solid reasoning, though, which is why I'd rather not.
On Ray, I've been troubled with what to think myself.
Somebody (Givenchy I think) brought up the evidence of Louis targeting him over N2, but that wouldn't make sense if he has any actions. Even if Ray is a scum role he would have had reason to claim that he was vanilla-ized, unless his role is such that he didn't know about it (and I need to go back and check if this is possible). Even Dior had some sort of an action...looking at the flips and such I think this line of reasoning is weak.
On the other hand, in general, even if Louis actually was roleblocked or something, viewing Ray on his own terms is kind of a question mark. He's got a role claim that's impossible to verify and while some of his D2 posts were sketchy he's done some decent posting under pressure. My lack of confidence in reading him is part of why I'd rather lynch Prada.
- on Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:14 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
I could see Burberry being scum potentially but it isn't anything solid like lynching Prada...Ray isn't a bad idea I guess but still.
- on Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:54 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
Givenchy wrote:I'm quite confused about the latest series of posts..
of course the action stuff is important.. Versace did you not think about the implications when Louie flipped town??
Honestly I skimmed through most of the claims. I want to keep it real as long as I can (including Ray's initial post where he was just looking at the possibility of scum joining wagons, regardless of counts from Valentino).
And yeah idk what Vivienne is talking about, your post had nothing to do (as far as I can tell) with your own role so if Ray's town then you're as likely "wrong" as "lying."
- on Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:30 am
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
Damn, the action stuff is turning out to be important.Also I feel like Givenchy's argument of "why haven't you been killed" is rather weak. Whether it's some form of town protective role who's been doing an extremely good job of guessing the mafia kills, a town player doing the killing, and/or something else entirely, it's pretty noticeable that the players killed during Night have never been the ones town-read by most of the game with the possible exception of Dior (but anybody reading this think about it: would he have been your first choice as scum?).
I'm willing to vote on Valentino's results, which technically I'm doing right now!
- on Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:32 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
Oh, I wasn't paying much attention to the action stuff.- on Sun Feb 16, 2014 10:09 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
I meant on Ray.- on Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:57 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 4
^if you're going to use that kind of language I'd be more specific...vote prada
should have happened a few times ago imo
- on Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:50 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
Oh hey Armani.To clarify, what I meant was that it's always two but I can't call it off.
- on Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:24 am
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
I don't get to choose when or when not to use the second vote or anything like that so I've just been ignoring it mostly.I still get bad vibes from Fendi regardless of the Tiffany flip.
Also I agree with what Valentino said about Armani & Louis. It'd be great of him to speak up about it but looking at the flips in this game it seems like a Vanillarizer wouldn't need to be compulsive if it's town lol
- on Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:17 am
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
I'm not sure if it's implied that it was only one-time, but possibly. Although, especially N2, I doubt she would have been shot by scum under the circumstances.The point about the lurkers prod-dodging at the same time is a good one and I hadn't thought of it, but I just got the feeling Seb was sending out prods through Server or Forum PM. It still means they've been online enough to post though.
I haven't been prodded afaik so I wouldn't really know.
- on Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:43 am
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
If it turns out the actual scum are just the inactives I'm going to be pissed.- on Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:00 pm
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
I really don't think Jimmy is scum but the other two seem fairly scummy. Moreso Vera, but I guess Hermes's feeling that Yves was scum before the claim gives me a feeling that he might have been onto something that I didn't catch. Like I didn't see any reason to put Yves as a scum read rather than "should get more active" and I still think Vera is worse from looking at ISOs (e.g. "I think jimmy or yves is scum" "nvm jimmy's not scum" *doesn't mention yves*) but yeah.- on Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:54 pm
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
I don't think it's "guaranteed" guaranteed, but I think it's a pretty good bet that we don't just have some OP three-connected-town roles running around.- on Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:42 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
well I guess if some of those "PRs" are actually scum then it's not a bad thing but still not everybody is going to be in a group of neighbors- on Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:46 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Day 3.2-3.9
I think we've had more than our fair share of town PRs claim already, not to mention it's D3.I feel pretty much the same way about things as before, but anybody want to talk while I'm here? I'm sure we could come up with something.
- on Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:45 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
Oh yeah, I missed a lot of the Neighbor stuff during D2.I still think Tiffany and Louis are both scum, so
- on Sat Feb 08, 2014 6:56 pm
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
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- on Sat Feb 08, 2014 3:59 am
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
Hey sorry I haven't been as active lately.Hermès wrote:You meant louis, tiffany and fendi correct?
Yep.
And in response to another of his posts I'll post some general reads. I've been skimming a lot lately but I think I still have a good grasp on what's going on.
- SPOILER:
- Alexander McQueen Null? Slight lean town? I guess it's kinda weird that he has like one long post but I haven't seen him as scum this game for the most part.
Armani Same as above I suppose. Never got the scum reads coming from some people, avatar is too much man though
Bulgari I sort of tacitly read Bulgari as town earlier for interactions with Tiffany and one or two other players, which was a bad idea. Taking a look: there was enough opposition to the Hermes wagon (including me) that I don't think that is as much Vanilla M2H as Vera on Miu. The rest looks good (I definitely don't judge anyone for voting Ray before he softclaimed PR). Still a town read.
Burberry Thought he was really town earlier and not so much these days. Or maybe, actually. Well I tried an ISO and only found one thing I didn't like:Burberry wrote:I feel the Fendi-Ortheore comparison isn't perfectly analogous as Ortheore generally talks a lot and that single post from Fendi is the only really long post he's made. Most of the arguments he did make didn't seem recycled, besides the one comparing this NOC to former beginner NOCs, a point Chanel and I had already made.
because he took an argument that IIRC wasn't about meta so much as tells but then focused on the meta part. Basically still seems pretty solid on the whole though.
Chanel I've been getting a bad feeling lately. In light of my read above since Chanel "drew attention back to Armani" this may be backed up by early play too. This feels a little buddyish (except on the guy who got mislynched). I don't trust Chanel so I'd say leaning scum.
Fendi Lean scum because I thought I had him and Tiffany down as partners based on excessive negativity toward each other but lately I have been unable to predict his reads based on that theory. The way he said this...it would have to be in a scum mindset because someone brought up what he would do as scum, but I still dislike it.
Givenchy I got a "tryhard" vibe during early D2 but I may have just been forgetting that new Givenchy is a sub. I guess he's probably OK, then.
Gucci Uh
Hermès Been townreading him (you) all game.
Jimmy Choo See above but slightly less so.
Kate Spade It's hard for me to even do this read without reflecting on Valentino's read, by which I mean I don't understand that read. And I don't have much of one.
Louis Vuitton Still scum.
Marchesa Didn't post much content early in the game and seems to have died (RIP PSH) lately but I feel like I've never read him as scum or had any great reason to. Pretty much null I suppose.
Prada His big quote-and-response post on Ray isn't necessarily a scum strategy but it's something to avoid because it gets you into a confirmation bias mindset unless you know what your strong points are from the start. Not as strong a scum read as before but still leaning that way.
Ray-Ban It's fun to defend a player without having a strong opinion of him, especially when so many people (like Fendi's recent post, Valentino, at least one of the B's) have apparently been intent on misrepping him. Basically leans town for me though.
Tiffany Same as before she stopped being able to post.
Valentino I think that he is town but will prove incorrect on many reads. Less likely but possible is that he is scum trying to give people that impression so he can push mislynches with immunity.
Vera Wang I did this one a little while ago, had a lean scum read but not a terribly strong one.
Vivienne Westwood Haha, made a post I thought was town for saying he'd just be normal and active, then went inactive, back to the neutral zone.
Yves Saint Laurent Probably a little bit on the scum side of null but I may need the people who want this to be the lynch to explain that for me.
Zara Uh
@Hermes, Jimmy, etc.: why yves specifically? (although I see Hermes is voting Louis now)
Re: people reading into Dior's flip
not sure whether to think he got nightkilled before being triggered or we activated the trigger somehow, so I am not likely to make a big deal out of it
Hm looks like we don't have a lot of time. In no particular order, the players I would prefer to see lynched
Louis, Tiffany, Chanel, Fendi, Prada, Vera
Come to think of it though I should be trying not to lynch the player who can't get online
Unvote Tiffany
I'll just pick between the two of the remaining 5 who have votes on them,
Vote Louis
On the two big wagons: based on the inability to get info out of Tiffany and my continuing read on her that has a sense of high risk–high reward, while my weaker (and probably town) read on Ray who has claimed a PR that likely won't make any crucial gains looks low risk–low reward by comparison. That perspective occurred to me earlier today and I thought I would post it when I got online next, but come to think about it based on the circumstances it might be smarter to go with neither right now.
tl;dr: ^prod dodge
- on Tue Feb 04, 2014 2:41 am
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
fendi keeps defying my expectations, but louis defs still in the same situation- on Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:27 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
fuck heroinOK time to make an ugly post
ray sets up really standard breadcrumb (vote your target first post if positive result) / makes really standard scum vote (vote guy with most votes)
ray does it poorly
people get suspicious and vote
ray "soft" claims pr
possibly more votes (!)
etc
either one works
also I don't think reporter should be crumbed that way js. it doesn't make much bearing on ray though because whether he was wagoning or crumbing he did it conspicuously and therefore badly (no offense). I may be slightly underestimating its usefulness but it seems like the point of the role is to be around during endgame, to find the scum in a small pool of vts or to fos an earlygame positive result who later claims vt.
but I do know this much
"lynch tiffany if ray flips town" is a scum position
"lynch ray if tiffany flips town" is a scum position unless maaaybe if she flips vt but even then
"don't lynch tiffany if ray flips scum" is another false dichotomy but not necessary scum
"don't lynch ray if tiffany flips scum" is the same
I'll look around for those
actually tiffany had enough votes (3 at the time) that it could conceivably be a bus so I wouldn't rule that out if one flips scum, although I'd still prioritize both Louis and Fendi higher if Tiffany flips scum
can't decide if i think chanel is scum because all her d2 posts seem off to me
I've been reading the last 6 or 7 pages in less detail but still every configuration between tiffany and ray is pretty reasonable and the one post of ray's that I find particularly scummy (the vote! lol) makes p much the same amount of sense if he's town, vs tiffany whose d1 put her on my scum list soooo
side note: I am aware that tiffany has a legitimate reason to not be posting atm
oh anyway right I still haven't done this
vera
I'm not sure what the point of all the upset was, but I guess I'm going with lean scum just because that represents a higher level of involvement D1 than he's had D2 despite the obvious controversy and intrigue we've had lately. Prada, Tiffany, and Ray have all justified older votes people found suspicious by saying they were random, which isn't quite the same as what Vera did, but kind of similar.
- on Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:22 pm
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
Valentino wrote:right now tiff should claim too see which is which on the reporter claim
how would her claim impact that one unless it's a cc? reporter info could mean as little as a vt who got inspected
I'm with this idea on general grounds because I think Tiffany is one of the (three or so) best lynches regardless of Ray's claim but if you're really asking Tiffany to claim as evidence against Ray that just looks like you want a superfluous PR claim.
- on Sat Feb 01, 2014 7:19 pm
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FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
That is...really lame. If you're town that result doesn't indicate much about Tiffany, so if you're scum Tiffany's flip doesn't indicate much about you.Now am I really conflicted.
- on Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:41 pm
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
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- on Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:20 pm
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- Topic: FASHIONABLE NOC ANON MAFIA - Days 1, 2, 3.1
- Replies: 991
- Views: 16431
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